A report published in the US by Multimedia Research Group and written by UK-based Rethink Research Associates has predicted there will be 244 million mobile TV devices by 2011, reports El Reg. A couple of weeks ago Screen Digest predicted 140 million subscribers by 2011, and a corresponding annual revenue of $6.6 billion. This latest report predicts services revenues from mobile TV will be $24 billion by 2011—Western Europe with $10 billion, followed by the USA and Canada at $7.7 billion, and China and the Far East lagging at $5 billion, despite higher usage levels.
“There are over 80 mobile TV trials all over the world and already there are a handful of services launched. The bulk of those trials are already committed to turn into genuine services, in some cases with a nationwide footprint, in other countries in limited regions,” said report author Peter White, principal analyst at Rethink. Still, while it’s possible that 244 million mobile TV devices will ship in the next four years it’s pretty optimistic to think that everyone who gets one of those devices is going to sign up for a mobile TV service—at the beginning that will be the case but as the feature becomes more common people will likely buy enabled handsets for other reasons (after all, they will be good handsets). To get that to 244 million active mobile TV users those 80 mobile TV trials will need to attract an average of 3 million paying customers within the next 4 years, and to hit $24 billion globally each user will have to generate an average of $98 a year in revenue. That isn’t a high price compared to current prices of mobile TV, but it does preclude dropping the price significantly to spur uptake.
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